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Monday, March 18, 2013

An Illinoisan's Guide to the Tournaments


We are in the midst of March Madness, but after a rousing bout of conference tournaments it is now time to enter the national stage.

For the men, only one team from Illinois made the Big Dance: the Fighting Illini of U of I. Meanwhile, four more teams will be playing in smaller tourneys. For the women DePaul is the only Illinois entry into the NCAAs, while three more teams ended up in the other Field of 64 that is the WNIT.

Below is a profile for each team, including how they got to where they are and where I predict they will finish in their respective tourney.

NCAA TOURNAMENT
Illinois
Seed: #7 in the East Region
Next Game: Friday vs. #10 Colorado (Austin, Texas) (3:40 PM CT, TNT)

After starting the season 12-0 the momentum ran out for the Illini as they were 10-12 the rest of the way, including 8-10 in a Big Ten that was extremely competitive this season. The team struggled with shooting (41.6% FG) and rebounding (30.3 RPG) a lot this season. However, if the shots can get going and the team can force enough turnovers, Illinois can be competitive with just about anybody. As a matter of fact, it was strong shooting and forced turnovers that allowed them to get big wins at Gonzaga and against Ohio State.

In my opinion, U of I finds themselves in a rough spot as their first matchup is against Tad Boyle and his Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado's strong suits include defense and rebounding. While there is a good chance that Illinois could get hot on this afternoon, I feel that Colorado is in a better position to frustrate the Illini shooters then pick up the pieces on the boards. Unfortunately, this may be an early exit for Illinois' Flagship School.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL
Western Illinois
Next Game: Wednesday at Purdue (6:00 PM CT, AXS TV)

The 2012-13 season at tiny Western Illinois has been historic...by their standards. As co-regular season champions of the Summit League WIU went 22-8 and had their best season in their 31 years as a Division I program. Known for their slow, methodical offense and stingy defense, the Leathernecks make their second straight appearance in the CBI.

At full strength, WIU would be more than capable of beating Purdue in West Lafayette. However, the Leathernecks have lost sixth-year-senior guard Ceola Clark for the postseason after he went down in their conference tournament loss to North Dakota State. The injury has been revealed to be an ACL tear.

On top of that their frontcourt leader Terell Parks has a foot injury of his own after hurting it in their Bracketbusters matchup against Cleveland State. He has been day-to-day ever since, but hasn't played since that game. If Parks doesn't come back, or he returns and isn't at least 75%, then Western will be out of the CBI rather quickly. I think that grave scenario is the most likely to happen.
COLLEGEINSIDER.COM TOURNAMENT
(The CIT's format is set up such that the bracket for future rounds will be dependent on the results of Tuesday's and Wednesday's opening round games. Because of this, I won't be able to make long-term predictions and can only say if I feel they will win their upcoming matchup.)

Bradley
Next Game: Wednesday vs. Green Bay (7:00 PM CT, watchcollegeinsider.com)

Bradley had a pretty ho-hum season, finishing 16-16 overall and 7-11 in the Missouri Valley. While players such as Walt Lemon, Dyricus Simms-Edwards, and Tyshon Pickett had their strong moments, the team as a whole tended to be largely inconsistent over the course of a full season.

Their first opponent are the Green Bay Phoenix. On paper, they are the superior team by only a little bit. They are a slightly better defensive squad than Bradley and have strong scorers in guard Kiefer Sykes and center Alec Brown. The ace in the hole for Bradley, however, will be the fact that they are good at home (12-4) and Green Bay is bad on the road (4-11). Since the Braves are hosting this on-campus at Renaissance Coliseum, I think they will manage to get the win.

Chicago State & UIC
Next Game: Wednesday at UIC Pavilion (7:00 PM CT, watchcollegeinsider.com)

The Cougars of Chicago State gained an automatic bid into the CIT as the winners of the (most likely final) Great West conference tournament (always nice to leave a conference on top). For their first matchup they won't have to travel too far, as they go from the South Side to the West Side to take on the UIC Flames.

The Flames started the season on fire (I'm so sorry for the pun...no I'm not) as they won nine of their first ten games. From there, the team went 8-14 the rest of the way, including 7-9 in the Horizon League and three different sets of three-game losing skids. Despite that, this year was an improvement as their 17-15 overall record was 9 wins better than the year before.

I'm not going to beat around the bush on this: UIC is going to win this game, and probably easily. UIC went 10-4 at the Pavilion (including 5-0 against teams with RPIs of 200 or more. Chi State has an RPI of 317). Chicago State went 2-15 on the road. I could go deeper than that, but I really think the result of this game comes down to those two statistics.

WOMEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT
DePaul
Seed: #10 in the Norfolk Region
Next Game: Sunday vs. #7 Oklahoma State (Durham, North Carolina) (1:35 PM CT, ESPN2)

The Blue Demons and their fast paced, efficient offensive attack went 11-3 in the non-conference season, but was humbled by the Big East schedule and went 9-7 in-conference.

DePaul finds themselves facing the OSU Cowgirls, a team with a more efficient offense and a better defense. This team will most likely find themselves bowing out of the tourney early.

WOMEN'S NIT
Eastern Illinois
Region 2
Next Game: Wednesday at Missouri (Time TBA)

Led by seniors Mariah King and Ta'Kenya Nixon, EIU had a decent season, going 12-4 in the Ohio Valley and 19-11 overall. For the most part, Missouri seems to have the upper hand, as they had no trouble during the season beating down smaller teams and are 14-4 at home. Mizzou is also a better shooting team overall and strong on post defense. Eastern could have a shot if they are able to get their long-range game going and can fight the Tigers on the boards. If I had to chose, though, I think Mizzou will win.

Illinois
Region 2
Next Game: Thursday vs. Miami (Ohio) (7:00 PM CT)

Illinois is team that had its ups and downs this season under first-year coach Matt Bollant. Short-staffed throughout the season, the Illini held up fairly well. The team was lead by Karisma Penn in the middle, but found themselves upset by Wisconsin in the conference tournament.

Coming in, the Illini play host to a Redhawks team that didn't hold up well against superior competition. Illinois has to make sure they dictate the tempo and make sure they get their shots off quickly and efficiently. This is particularly important because they don't play defense very well and Miami is a very good shooting team. I think that U of I and their multiple scoring weapons will be good enough to make it to Round 3, where they could be stopped by a very good Toledo squad.

Illinois State
Region 2
Next Game: Thursday vs. IUPUI (Time TBA)

Illinois State's three-pronged attack of Janae Smith, Candace Sykes, and Jamie Russell managed to carry the Redbirds to a respectable 23-10 record and 13-5 in the Missouri Valley. Their next opponent will be the IUPUI Jaguars, a team whose calling card is their perimeter defense and their ability to force turnovers. However, ISU is more inclined to work the ball inside where the Jaguars struggle due to a size disadvantage. Illinois State should come out on top and could make it to the 4th Round, where I feel they would be stopped by Toledo.

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